Comparing the Worst: MGLI, Depth, and the 2008-09 New York Islanders - Part I

2009-10 Edmonton Oilers: 27-47-8, 214 GF/284 GA, 62 PTS
2008-09 New York Islanders: 26-47-9, 201 GF/279 GA, 61 PTS
---All year I've been keeping track of Man-Games Lost to Injury and commenting on how they can represent the depth of a team. Thin teams, like the 2008-09 Isles or our favourite bunch of losers, are ravaged by high MGLI numbers. Others, like the 2008-09 Blues or Flyers, manage to shore up the holes and put together decent seasons without the injured players.

The comparison between last year's Islanders and this year's Oilers go a bit deeper...

GOALTENDING


Rick DiPietro played a pitiful 5 games in 2008-09. Nikolai Khabibulin played 18 this season. Although DiPietro's relationship with his Organization is much different than Khabibulin's, Ricky and Nikky both sport injury-prone histories and noose-like contracts. They were both relied upon to be the cornerstone of the team and they were both sidelined by hardly-surprising injuries (knee and back respectively; both problem areas prior to the seasons).
NYI spent the rest of 08-09 splitting time between Joey MacDonald and Yann Danis, while the JDDD combo replaced the Oilers' 09-10 starter. The similarities are startling when you dig into the goalies' careers.

Joey MacDonald played 17 NHL games prior to the 08-09 season and Danis: only 6 GP. The tenders played a combined 350 games in the AHL and 276 in Junior and NCAA respectively. While much older than the Oilers' tandem, NYI's solution in net was near identical in experience.

ADD was the only Oiler backup with NHL GP, a paltry 10 games at that. In the A, the two put up a combined 236 GP with 342 GP in Junior. So, totaled, each tandem's experience looks like this:

MacDonald/Danis: 23 NHL GP, 350 AHL GP, 276 Jr./NCAA GP
Deslauriers/Dubnyk: 10 NHL GP, 236 AHL GP, 342 Jr. GP
Ugly, isn't it? To drive the point home, let's have a gander at NYI's goaltending situation this season. DiPietro played 8 games (surprise, surprise), but Garth Snow had had the foresight to let Mac and Danis walk, instead signing Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron in the offseason. The duo's combined 895 NHL GP assuredly contributed to the Isles' progression from a -78 Goal Differential in 08-09 to a -36 Goal Diff. in 09-10. Both tenders posting vastly better boxcars than their predecessors with very little change to the roster in front of them.

So, with the GM's postseason State of the Union, it's clear the Oilers are considering goaltending alternatives. While the Ruskie seems to have wormed his way into Tambellini's good graces (a good look from J-Dub), he's also vowed the Org won't keep its three-headed dog on the chain.

With Khabby in the mix, everyone but Steve is bracing for a shared starter position. Dubnyk should spend the year in OKC rehabilitating his confidence and being the rock in net he's proved himself to be at the AHL level. He'll have buckets more scoring with some high-level prospects entering the system, which should do wonders for Rob Daum and the new farm team. Meanwhile, Nik's backup should be a UFA pick-up with plenty of NHL experience... Martin Biron, maybe? And maybe his backup will be the next Monster.

If Garth. Snow. can recognize an injury-prone franchise goaltender (albeit 3 years after that ridiculous contract) and address the problem of an inexperienced backup tandem, then a similar solution has to be rattling around in TambLowe's near-vacant hivemind. I'm all for Adam Larsson, but letting a blue-chipper like Dubnyk get shelled over and over again is not an appropriate path for a rebuilding team. How the Org treats the goaltending this year will be very telling of how this club will fare in 2010-11.---I'll keep on this comparison over the next couple weeks, addressing the D and the forwards with a focus on team depth and impact of injuries. Stay tuned, true believers.

Last

The Edmonton Oilers play the Anaheim Ducks at 6:00PM MST today, Sunday, April 11, 2010.

It's the last game on the 2009-10 NHL schedule.

Fitting, as the Oilers are the last place team in the 2009-10 NHL Season. A first for the team.

They also happen to be last in Goals Against, Faceoff%, Man Games Lost to Injury (530), and near the basement in plenty of other columns.

There's no guarantee we'll pick first on June 25, but we've got the biggest ball in the bingo cage. Although it does come down to a coinflip...

Last, at last.

Nowhere to go but up, right?

Gettin' Up

2009-10: 3 GP, 6 PTS (3G, 3A) playing with Linglet/Minard-Wiseman
2008-09: 9 GP, 9 PTS (3G, 6A) playing with Potulny-Stone
The Cardiac Kid has arrived in Springfield. Again. So far, Eberle's tallied 15 points in a dozen games in the A and, even by modest standards, is going like gangbusters.

What does this mean for the Oilers? Only the reckless acceleration towards the inevitable: Eb to Ed.

The EJ is all over JE's production and claims the Org "told the kid a call-up is coming as long as he produces, and he's holding up his end of the bargain."

There's no quotation marks around that excerpt in the story proper, which smacks of pandering. They quote Daum and he answers like they're asking him at gunpoint why he hasn't hand-delivered young Master Eberle to Tambellini's doorstep, snug in a basket and swaddled in an Oilers jersey. They are, of course, paying lip service to the slavering fans eager for his call-up. With nothing to lose and a joyless season rapidly retreating to the darkest corner of our memories, the Oilers will no doubt bring the kid up and start hustling hope by the kilo.

The Ducks game on Friday marks the Oilers ninth-last game of the season. T-9 games means open season on call-ups that won't effect eligibility. Could we see Eberle that early? Perhaps. Or the management may wait until the team heads to Missouri and ease the kid in with a short flight and a mellow Sunday afternoon tilt against the Blues.

A good showing from Eberle would be a mouthwatering appetizer for the Draft for fans and the Org alike.
---
Quick Hits
--Re: that First Overall Pick... The debate rages on, but now their asking Pat Quinn what he thinks. "Isshy and what? You must be some kind of crazy person," OTC responded.

--Another late-season pleasure, the Spoilers are starting to show up at the rink. Despite beating the Wings, they gifted them a Loser Point and helped them edge past the Flamers. Last night, the Sharks saw the Pacific Division slip out of their grasp thanks to the Spoil. Except for the Vancouver game, anymore wins for the good guys could cause some major disruption in the Western Conference Playoff race.

--Man Games Lost to Injury Watch: 441. Based on Mirtle's 2008-09 late-season projections, we're outpacing the Blues Conference-worst MGLI from last year, something they overcame to make the playoffs as a 6th seed. Interestingly enough, the last place Islanders posted the League-worst 566 MGLI the same year. That also happens to be the worst the League's seen in the past five years. The Oil aren't likely to catch up, but we'll come close... And we'll likely post a worse record than the 08-09 Isles.

--Another interesting piece on injuries, specifically CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Players).

Blood In The Water

Just when you thought it was safe to be an Oilers fan...

via three frames

With everyone's favourite non-Oiler in town, one look at our bloodied roster should have us preparing for a feeding frenzy. The Sharks of San Jose will be out for retribution after an embarrassing 7-2 loss to their closest competition for the Presidents' and the top spot in the West. What's worse is the aforementioned Heater will be riding a wave of 19 points in 18 games into Rexall.

Assuming they make it out of Friday's game alive, the Oil will be marched out to the plane and shipped West for another run at the Canucks, kicking off a six-game road trip. The last trip didn't go so well (4 points out of a possible 10) and this one could be even worse. Starting with a back-to-back likely means DD will be starting in Vancouver, so we'll be essentially icing a squad that's half-Falcon at GM Place.

Man Games Lost to Injury Watch: 146
With Hemsky out and awaiting an MRI, multiple players on day-to-day, and no timeline for the return of Comrie, Grebs, or Pisani, I'm prepared for this number to rise steadily over the next month. Clearly that does not bode well for our chances over the mid-season stretch, but hey at least we'll have the Olympic break to rest up. It's not like we'll be sending any players to Vancouver then.

The Kissing Disease

News has spread like... well, mono that one Mr. Michael Comrie is out indefinitely with mononucleosis. The poor guy should only be knocked out for a couple weeks, but it's another unfortunate visit from the injury bug in an already busy year for the Oilers medical staff. The Organization is saying 122 Man Games Lost to Injury after 22 games, while James Mirtle (the only person who seems to compile these stats) has us listed at 105 MGLtI after 21 games. It's a bit odd for the numbers to not line up, so let's just take them in a min-max scenario.

Projecting from these numbers, we can approximate losing 410 to 455 games to the injury bug this year. How does this compare to the past few seasons? Now, I've been unable to track down the actual MGLtI for the Oil last year, so I'm going to have to go off of the projected numbers (once again, via Mirtle).

2005-06: 134 MGLtI
2006-07: 286 MGLtI
2007-08: 340 MGLtI
2008-09: 241 MGLtI*
*(projected on March 18, 2009)
Clearly the Oilers are outpacing themselves but, considering the law of averages, one must believe that our injuries will tail off towards the end of the season. Or will they?

As we can see in Mirtle's chart, teams like Philly and St. Louis still handily made the playoffs despite posting high MGLtI numbers in 2008-09. This doesn't mean that they lost less important players or that their injuries were less severe, the clubs simply had the depth and experience to handle the losses. Leaving us with the excruciating reality of the unbalanced Peewee team the Oilers front office calls an NHL-caliber squad. Maybe it's just me, but icing an undersized, inexperienced team with lack of depth seems to be the perfect recipe for an injury-dominated season.

While this early black-and-blue streak is bringing out the doomsayers in all of us, I think there still has to be some glimmer of hope. If the boys do get healed up and provide some artillery support for our outstanding first line, we could still be in fair shape come April. Unfortunately, without a major depth move before the deadline, Tambellini & Co. are not giving this team a fair shake. As gritty and determined as he is, the Red Ox cannot do it all alone.